Think of several parts of an economic engine weakening together, rather than one gauge flickering.
01
Go deeper
For the United States, the NBER examines multiple indicators and dates business-cycle peaks and troughs. Two quarters of falling real GDP are a shortcut, not its formal rule. Decisions often come after the turning point.
02
Make it concrete
Hypothetical illustration. Hypothetically, output slips in one quarter while jobs and income rise. That one number alone does not establish a recession.
03
When you read a headline
Distinguish a recession forecast from an observed contraction and a formal dating decision.